The stinky streak is over.
After two awful weeks, I got back on track with my picks in Week 14. The record was 9-7 against the spread, making my season record 99-104-3. Damn, those two weeks really destroyed my record.
But I have three weeks to get it rolling — and then the playoffs.
I went 4-3 with my Best Bets on the Pick Six podcast, which ups my season record to a sizzling 49-33-1. That’s what I will hang my hat on for now.
Here’s hoping for three big weeks to close out the regular season. How about an 11-5 ATS record this week? Sounds good to me.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are fighting for their playoff lives and will do so with a new defensive coordinator after Paul Guenther was fired. Will it matter? The defense is a mess and it has a ton of injuries. Justin Herbert should have a field day, but so will Derek Carr. This will be a high-scoring game, with the Raiders winning a close one.
Pick: Raiders 33, Chargers 31
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
This will be a tough turnaround for the Bills after they put a lot into beating the Steelers in prime time Sunday night. That will make it a challenge early, but I think they will get the offense going and the defense will limit Drew Lock. The Bills keep it rolling.
Pick: Bills 27, Broncos 19
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Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
The Panthers have lost seven straight and the defense has struggled. That’s not a good formula against the Packers. Green Bay’s offense is rolling and Aaron Rodgers will continue that here. Packers big.
Pick: Packers 37, Panthers 23
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are basically done, while the Cowboys are hanging on in the NFC East. The Cowboys have defensive issues, but they have played better on offense lately. The 49ers should be able to run the ball and control the clock, which will keep them in the game. But Dallas will win it.
Pick: Cowboys 27, 49ers 25
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team
This will be a real proving ground for the Washington defense. They have been outstanding the past few weeks, and the front is talented and menacing. Russell Wilson will present a big problem for them, but the Giants did a good job on him two weeks ago with their front. Look for Washington to play well in this one and pull off the upset.
Pick: Washington 23, Seahawks 20
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
This is essentially an elimination game, with the loser all but out of the playoffs. The Bears have played better on offense lately with Mitch Trubisky, while the Vikings have struggled on defense. The Vikings will struggle to run it here with Dalvin Cook, which is why I think the Bears will come in and pull off the upset.
Pick: Bears 28, Vikings 24
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Bill Belichick has had great success against rookie passers and now will match up against Tua Tagovailoa for the first time. Miami is banged up in terms of skill players, which will make it even tougher. This will be a low-scoring game and I think the Patriots will find a way to win it on the road.
Pick: Patriots 20, Dolphins 14
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have won two straight, while the running game is going wild lately. The Jaguars can’t stop the run, which will be a major problem. Gardner Minshew is back in at quarterback for the Jaguars, but it won’t matter. This will be ugly.
Pick: Ravens 37, Jaguars 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs seemed to right things last week against the Vikings, while the Falcons looked bad in losing to the Chargers. The Atlanta offense is struggling, and that will show up in this one. Look for Tom Brady and the Bucs to get the best of this one.
Pick: Bucs 29, Falcons 21
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans
The Lions are hoping that Matt Stafford can play in this one with his injured ribs. If he can’t, it will be Chase Daniel. Whoever plays will have success throwing it against the Titans defense. The problem is the Titans will score even more. Look for another big game from Derrick Henry.
Pick: Titans 35, Lions 25
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts won at Houston two weeks ago, and there is no reason to think that changes in this game. The Texans are a mess and they are playing consecutive road games. The Colts are back home for the first time in three weeks. Their defense will limit the Texans offense, while the Colts running games comes up big, but it will be tight.
Pick: Colts 28, Texans 23
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Jalen Hurts will start his second consecutive game for the Eagles at quarterback, but this will be his first road start. The Cardinals came alive on defense last week against the Giants, and I think that pass rush will show up again. Hurts can’t duplicate his victory from last week as the Cardinals win a a second straight game.
Pick: Cardinals 30, Eagles 21
New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams
The Jets didn’t do much of anything last week against Seattle and now must face another tough NFC West team. The Rams are rested after playing last Thursday, which will make this even more of a challenge for the Jets, who have to be thinking vacation time. This will be ugly.
Pick: Rams 31, Jets 10
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints
Kansas City Chiefs
This is the game of the week. The Saints are coming off a bad loss to the Eagles but could have Drew Brees back for this one. The Chiefs are playing consecutive road games, which is tough, especially outside the division. But Patrick Mahomes will have success against the Saints defense on the fast track. Chiefs win it.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Saints 23
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants
The Browns are playing on a short week and lost a heartbreaker to the Ravens Monday night. The Giants were bad last week against the Cardinals, but this is a chance to bounce back on a team with less rest and also playing on the road. I think the Giants defense will play well against the Cleveland offense and this will be a low-scoring game. Giants take it.
Pick: Giants 22, Browns 20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers have been struggling in a big way. But they have the perfect tonic for their ailing offense in the Bengals. This is the game where the Steelers get back on track after two losses. The Bengals won’t be able to move it against their defense. Steelers big.
Pick: Steelers 28, Bengals 14