Matthew Berry’s 100 facts for the 2021 fantasy football season

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We fast ahead to the conclusion of the video game, and Rupert tends to make a particularly horrible remark to Rebecca. Ted asks Rupert to be peaceful and then leans more than to the bartender to request what he requirements to gain.

He is instructed he requirements two triple-20s and a bull’s-eye. 3 very hard photographs. The ex-partner laughs to himself. “Great luck,” he claims dismissively.

And it is at that moment when Ted nods, stands in front of the dartboard and claims …

“You know, Rupert, fellas have underestimated me my entire existence and for a long time I hardly ever comprehended why. It used to genuinely hassle me. But then one particular working day I was driving my little boy to school and I noticed a estimate by Walt Whitman. It was painted on the wall, and it said, ‘Be curious, not judgmental.’ I like that.”

(Ted throws a triple-20.)

“So I get back in my vehicle and I am driving to get the job done and all of a unexpected it hits me. All them fellas that used to belittle me, not a one one particular of them was curious. You know, they imagined they had everything figured out, so they judged everything and they judged everyone. And I understood that their underestimating me — who I was — had very little to do with it. Due to the fact if they have been curious, they would have requested inquiries. Questions like, ‘Have you played a great deal of darts, Ted?'”

(Ted throws a different triple-20.)

“To which I would have answered, ‘Yes, sir. Just about every Sunday afternoon at a sporting activities bar with my father from age 10 until I was 16 when he passed away.'”

(Ted stares at the board for a next.)

“Barbecue sauce.”

(Ted throws a best bull’s-eye to gain.)

I have to notify you, as a former Tv set writer, that’s about as excellent as it gets in phrases of crafting, acting and directing, and my words and phrases do not give justice to how nicely Jason Sudeikis plays that. But there are a million articles or blog posts about how excellent Ted Lasso is. You didn’t arrive below for a different.

You can find a great deal in that speech I would enjoy to unpack, but for this column, I chose that speech simply because of the Whitman estimate.

Fantasy soccer requirements a great deal far more curious. A great deal far more inquiries. Due to the fact whether it is analysts or fantasy players, they are complete of judgment. They assume they have everything figured out. They assume they know which players will do nicely, which players will not, which positions to draft when, which NFL coaches are excellent and which are terrible, which fantasy analysts are smart and which types are morons. They choose everyone and they choose everything.

It truly is a excellent lesson for existence and it is a excellent lesson for fantasy soccer. Rather of judging and imagining you know everything, be curious. Question a problem.

I will start off.

Which of these two quarterbacks do you want in fantasy this year?

Quarterback A: A single of the initially items that has to problem you is whether Quarterback A will even be on the discipline. Acquiring skipped 18(!) games the previous 4 seasons (virtually thirty% of his games), QBA has played all 16 games in a year only once in his NFL career. Offered all his skipped games, you have to be worried about his offensive line. Previous year, his O-line authorized stress at the 10th-maximum fee in the NFL. How terrible was it? The line authorized stress at the 3rd-maximum fee when the opponent did NOT blitz. And that’s a problem, simply because when blitzed, QBA’s off-goal proportion was worse than Dwayne Haskins’ and Mitchell Trubisky’s, among the others.

QBA’s yards per endeavor has long gone down three straight seasons, and who needs a dink-and-dunker in fantasy? Get this: 23.3% of his passes past year have been thrown at or at the rear of the line of scrimmage. His crew included no considerable go-catchers this offseason, and he just misplaced the 1,000-property receiver he had the maximum capture fee with. His career is clearly on a downward craze (I indicate, his landing passes are down a whopping 24% from even just two a long time in the past).

Quarterback B: Meanwhile, Quarterback B has a number of finishes of ninth or superior at the posture, and he is established up for his very best fantasy year ever. Why? He has a new playcaller who with his prior crew obtained seventy two% of its offensive yards as a result of the air (the sixth-maximum fee in the NFL more than that extend). The coach’s offense retained receiving superior, as past year it had its very best year through his tenure in phrases of passing yards per video game, fastest tempo, TD/INT ratio and fantasy factors per purple zone endeavor.

QBB offers you factors with his arm and his legs he is coming off a year in which he had the most dashing makes an attempt of his career, doubled his dashing yards and dashing touchdowns from the year prior to and did that all in one particular less video game played. He has been to a number of Pro Bowls, attained a number of NFL Participant of the Week awards and is coming off career highs in completion proportion and on-goal proportion, a career reduced in terrible-toss proportion and took a large leap ahead from 2019 with a larger landing proportion and a reduce interception proportion.

So, you know everything you want to know, proper? You’ve invested this entire preseason learning, mock drafting, looking through, listening and viewing. So permit me request you once more:

Which quarterback do you want?

Fully grasp that every one issue I wrote about each participant is 100% true.

I just gave you nearly 500 words and phrases of thorough exploration about them. Do you genuinely want far more information? You know the proper one particular to decide on, do not you?

The draft clock is winding down. You hear my frustrating voice yell at you from the pc screen. “Hurry up! Make a decide on!” Gotta make a phone. And you know — I indicate, you know — which one particular you want. It truly is obvious. Quarterback B, proper? The dude with the a number of top rated-nine finishes and the fantasy-pleasant playcaller?

Well, prior to you solution, you must most likely request me a problem.

Like, “Hey, Matthew, what are those guys’ names?”

“Oh, and Quarterback A is named Patrick Mahomes.”

Be curious, not judgmental.

I indicate, I was just ready to communicate down Patrick Mahomes. I did it by utilizing his rookie year, in which he sat for 15 games, and made it feel like he was injuries-inclined, while also ignoring that the rationale he didn’t engage in all 16 games every year is the Chiefs have ordinarily clinched a bye by Week 16 or seventeen. I leaned into the Chiefs’ offensive line woes with no acknowledging the accidents or choose-outs from past year, or that the crew feels it addressed all that through the offseason.

I didn’t point out one particular rationale to toss a great deal of shorter bubble screens is that when you have Tyreek Hill on your crew, why not choose gain of the one particular of the fastest fellas in the NFL? I ignored that the rationale the Chiefs didn’t make any major offseason moves for a go-catcher is that they didn’t want to and, I confess, it took me forever to obtain a ex
cellent Sammy Watkins stat to make it feel like him leaving the crew would be an challenge. His 1,000-property year was in 2015 with the Buffalo Payments, by the way. And last but not least, I was ready to craze Mahomes down by comparing past season’s stats to his absurd fifty-landing 2018 year.

As for Goff, he has, in fact, had two usable fantasy seasons in which he concluded in the top rated nine, but certainly not past year, and there was not a great deal else to get the job done with to make Goff audio excellent. So as an alternative, I went with his new offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn, and used all the absurd Justin Herbert stats to make Lynn and Goff audio a great deal superior. Goff did have 4 dashing touchdowns past year soon after receiving two the year prior to. Lamar Jackson he just isn’t, but written the proper way, he can audio like a twin danger.

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My level of earning Goff audio terrific and Mahomes audio washed up is to display you how I can virtually make stats say anything at all I want. I just have to choose the proper stats and omit the others for the work. Or request my buddies “Thirsty” Kyle Soppe of the Fantasy Target 06010 podcast or Damian Dabrowski — The Stat-a-Pillar from The Fantasy Display with Matthew Berry on ESPN+ — to obtain me the proper stat for the work, as I did at several factors while crafting and investigating this column.

You see, there is really little in this globe I am basically excellent at, but one particular issue I am a globe-course grasp at? Manipulating stats to notify you the story I want you to hear.

As we head into the ultimate 10 or so times of drafts and into the 2021 year, I want you to try to remember I do that. I do it all the time. Just about every time, in fact. Podcasts, Tv set, columns, Twitter … I will give you only some of the story. And any person who does this for a dwelling or a pastime and is telling you why this dude is brilliant and this one particular is a bum, and why that dude is undervalued and how you want to disregard this other dude, is executing the same issue. It truly is all just impression.

Your work? Observe the games, crunch the quantities, figure out which analysts you have faith in and whose imagining you regard. And then, most importantly, be curious — not judgmental.

Do it all, and then, at the conclusion of the working day, make your possess phone.

These are 100 details you want to know. What you do with them is up to you.

1. More than the previous three seasons, there are only two quarterbacks with far more than thirty games with a number of landing passes. Patrick Mahomes and … Russell Wilson. They are tied with 34.

two. Wilson is the only QB with at least thirty landing passes in each of the previous two seasons.

2a. He has done it for 4 straight seasons.

3. Between QBs more than the previous 4 seasons, only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton have far more dashing yards than Wilson.

four. He has hardly ever skipped a video game in his NFL career.

5. The past year Wilson didn’t complete as a top rated-10 fantasy QB in full factors, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman and Tim Tebow have been all beginning QBs in the NFL.

six. More than the previous 4 seasons, Wilson is initially among the QBs in full factors and fourth in factors per video game.

6a. He is becoming drafted as QB7.

7. In Week 7 of the 2019 year, Ryan Tannehill was named the beginning quarterback for the Tennessee Titans. Since that time, he has:

8. The fourth most games with at least 25 fantasy factors.

9. The 3rd most passing touchdowns.

10. … and the next most full touchdowns (tied with Josh Allen).

11. Since that time, he is averaging 21.7 factors per video game.

twelve. That is .six less factors per video game than Allen and .9 less factors per video game than Mahomes.

thirteen. Since turning into the starter, he is the fourth-very best QB in fantasy in full factors.

fourteen. His crew included Julio Jones this offseason.

15. Tannehill is becoming drafted as QB10.

16. In Week fourteen of past year, Jalen Hurts started off his initially of 4 straight games as QB for the Philadelphia Eagles.

seventeen. The huge receivers with the most routes run through that 4-video game extend have been rookie Jalen Reagor, who played his eighth career NFL video game in Week fourteen, and former university quarterback Greg Ward, who in 2019 played huge receiver for the San Antonio Commanders of the now-defunct AAF.

18. It would be the ultimate 4 games of Doug Pederson’s tenure as head mentor of the Eagles.

19. Hurts threw for 919 yards on 133 makes an attempt, ran for 272 yards and scored 10.3 factors per video game with his legs on your own.

20. He averaged 23. full factors per video game.

20a. Previous year, 23 factors per video game would have been QB7.

21. These quantities prorated more than a 16-video game year would be 532 go makes an attempt and 164.8 fantasy factors with his legs.

22. Previous year, there have been only five quarterbacks to toss at least four hundred passes and rating at least sixty factors with their legs.

23. These five quarterbacks have been Allen (QB2), Kyler Murray (QB4), Deshaun Watson (QB5), Wilson (QB6) and Tannehill (QB9).

23a. Hurts is heading in the eleventh round in ESPN leagues.

25. In those games, he has averaged 313 passing yards and 21.7 fantasy factors.

26. That 21.7 mark would have been excellent more than enough to be a top rated-10 QB past year, just .8 factors reduce than QB6, Wilson.

27. Previous year, Washington’s beginning quarterbacks have been existing Steelers backup Dwayne Haskins, existing Washington backup Kyle Allen and existing ESPN analyst Alex Smith.

28. With that trio below center, Washington continue to attempted 37.six passes per video game, ninth most in the NFL.

29. Previous year, Fitzpatrick led all capable quarterbacks in completion proportion on deep passes.

thirty. This offseason, Washington included Curtis Samuel (four.31 forty time) and drafted Dyami Brown (four.forty six) to go alongside with Terry McLaurin (four.35), Antonio Gibson (four.39) and six-foot-six, 250-pound Logan Thomas (four.sixty one).

31. Fitzpatrick is heading undrafted in far more than 80% of ESPN leagues.

32. Previous year, 7 of the top rated 10 QBs had at least 15% of their fantasy factors arrive from dashing.

33. In his lone complete university year, Trey Lance rushed for 1,100 yards and fourteen TDs.

34. Since 2019, the 49ers are tied for 3rd in dashing touchdowns, fifth in dashing makes an attempt and sixth in dashing yards.

35. More than the previous three seasons, Jimmy Garoppolo has skipped 23 games.

36. Lance’s existing ESPN ADP is 157.7 (QB19).

37. Since the starting of 2019, 31 running backs have at least 300 touches.

38. Of those 31 capable backs, Christian McCaffrey is 3rd with 1.seventeen fantasy factors per contact.

39. Alvin Kamara is next in fantasy factors per contact, at 1.20.

forty. And initially, with 1.21 fantasy factors per contact, is Austin Ekeler.

forty one. In his nine wholesome games past year, Ekeler averaged 18.six touches per video game.

42. More than a 16-video game year, that equals out to 297.six full touches.

forty three. Previous year, Ezekiel Elliott had 296 full touches, fifth most in the NFL.

44. Once he came back from injuries past year, from Week twelve on, participating in with Justin Herbert, no running back had a larger goal share than Ekeler’s 19.9%.

45. Previous year, Ekeler scored only three touchdowns.

forty six. In 2019, he scored 11 touchdowns.

46a. He tends to make Mike Clay’s listing of players envisioned to rating far more touchdowns this year.

forty seven. From 2011 to 2019, only three situations did a running back have at least three operates of 70-plus yards in one particular year.

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48. These running backs have been Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson, all in 2012.

49. None of them recurring it the up coming year or ever once more.

fifty. Previous year, Miles Sanders had three operates of 70-plus yards.

51. Eliminate those operates and past year Sanders was 41st among the running backs in fantasy factors per contact.

52. Sanders has hardly ever had a video game with far more than 20 carries in his two-year career.

53. He did, even so, have three games past year with 10 or less full touches.

fifty four. To put that a different way, Sanders played only twelve games past year. In 25% of them, he had 10 or less touches.

55. New Eagles head mentor Nick Sirianni was the offensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts from 2018 to ’20.

fifty six. In none of those three seasons did a one RB engage in far more than fifty% of the Colts’ snaps.

57. In all three seasons, a number of running backs played at least thirty% of the snaps.

58. In all three seasons, a 3rd Colts RB played far more than 15% of the team’s snaps.

fifty nine. Previous year, no running back with at least fifty targets had a reduce capture fee than Sanders’ 52.8%.

sixty one. For his career, in games in which Josh Jacobs has had less than 15 touches, he has hardly ever had 10 or far more fantasy factors.

62. For his career, in the 16 games with less than 20 touches, Jacobs averages 10.5 fantasy factors per video game.

62a. 20 touches a video game is … a great deal.

63. Previous year, 10.5 fantasy factors per video game was reduce than RB31 Rex Burkhead’s 10.8 factors per video game.

sixty four. Previous year, among the RBs with 100-plus touches, Jacobs rated forty sixth in fantasy factors per contact. Forty-sixth.

64a. Very same group, same qualifier, RB43 was Kalen Ballage.

64b. RB44 was Brian Hill.

64c. RB45 was Devontae Booker.

64d. Booker, Hill and Ballage are all backups this year for their respective NFL groups.

65. This offseason, the Raiders misplaced starters Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson and Trent Brown from their offensive line.

66. Previous year, Jacobs’ yards per have soon after speak to fell by far more than 22%.

sixty seven. For his career, he averages 1.8 receptions per video game.

sixty eight. More than the previous five a long time, the New England Patriots have had the NFL’s next-maximum purple zone hurry fee.

69. Previous year, the Patriots led the NFL in purple zone hurry proportion.

70. Previous year, the Patriots had 53 purpose-to-go carries.

71. Of those 53 carries, 49 of them went to Cam Newton, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel and Damien Harris.

seventy two. Newton (no cost agent), Burkhead (Texans) and Michel (Rams) are no lengthier on the Patriots.

73. Previous year, groups that have been trailing threw the ball sixty eight% of the time.

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74. Most sportsbooks have the more than/below for Detroit Lions wins this year involving four.5 and 5 wins.

75. More than the previous two a long time, no running back has caught a larger proportion of his targets than new Detroit Lions RB Jamaal Williams.

76. From 2017 to ’20, the Chargers, below head mentor Anthony Lynn, had the 3rd-maximum RB goal share in the NFL.

seventy seven. From 2017 to ’20, the Chargers, below head mentor Anthony Lynn, had the next-most RB receptions in the NFL.

77a. Lynn is now the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions.

78. In his 7 games past year with at least 10 touches, Jamaal Williams averaged thirteen.1 factors per video game, which would have been RB25 on a factors-per-video game foundation.

seventy nine. Previous year for the Lions, Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson combined for 231 touches.

79a. Neither is on the crew this year.

79b. Jamaal Williams is at the moment becoming drafted as RB41 on ESPN.

80. Previous year, Cooper Kupp averaged thirteen.9 fantasy factors per video game and concluded as WR30 on a per-video game foundation.

eighty one. Since 2015, below are some of the rookie receivers who averaged less than thirteen.9 factors per video game in their initially year: Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill.

82. Ja’Marr Chase is becoming drafted as a borderline top rated-thirty huge receiver on ESPN.

eighty three. In Weeks 1-11 past year, with a wholesome Joe Burrow below center, Tyler Boyd was WR14 on a per-video game foundation.

eighty four. In Weeks 1-11 past year, Ja’Marr Chase, in university, was WR … very little. He didn’t engage in soccer past year.

eighty five. Since the start off of 2018, Tyler Boyd is WR18 in full factors.

86. Boyd is at the moment heading as WR36 on ESPN, usually a number of rounds soon after Chase.

86a. What are we executing below, men and women? Critically.

88. Since 2015, Cooks has skipped a full of three regular-year games.

89. Previous year, his initially in Houston, Cooks was WR17.

90. Previous year, William Fuller V, Randall Cobb, Keke Coutee, Darren Fells, Chad Hansen, Kenny Stills, Steven Mitchell, Kahale Warring and Deandre Carter combined for 254 targets.

90a. None of them are on the Texans’ 53-person roster as of Sept. 1, 2021.

ninety one. Previous year, Cooks had 10 games with at least 7 targets. In those 10 games, he averaged 19.7 fantasy factors.

92. Previous year, 19.7 fantasy factors per video game would have been WR4, just in advance of Calvin Ridley.

ninety three. Cooks is at the moment heading as WR33, in the 10th round, in ESPN leagues.

93a. I indicate, actually men and women. Appear ON.

94. Previous year, only three tight ends had far more purple zone targets than Logan Thomas.

ninety five. Previous year, only two tight ends had far more games of double-digit fantasy factors than Thomas’ 10.

96. Previous year, only one particular tight conclusion (Darren Waller) ran a route on a larger proportion of his team’s dropbacks than Thomas’ 82.two%.

ninety seven. And past year, no tight conclusion ran far more overall routes than Thomas.

97A. And he did all that with quarterbacks Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen and Alex Smith.

ninety eight. This offseason, Washington upgraded at quarterback and gave Thomas a three-year, $24 million extension.

99. Previous year, Thomas was the 3rd-very best TE in fantasy.

100. This year, he is becoming drafted as TE7, in the eighth round.