17/05/2022

Usspavolley

The Sport Effect

2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Ranking Tiers by category, not position makes for a perfect Roto cheat sheet

Tiers have become a staple in Fantasy Baseball, demonstrating the distribution of talent at each position and thereby signaling when you should target a particular one to maximize the impact of each pick.

But they’re not as helpful in an era when output is fairly balanced between the positions. No, what should be guiding your picks more than positional scarcity, at least in a Rotisserie league or any other that uses categories rather than points, is statistical scarcity.

In such a league, you need to vary the types of production you’re getting. You need batting average help. You need home run help. You need stolen base help. Those three aren’t available in equal measure.  

It’s true you also need RBI help and run help, at least in a standard 5×5 leagues, but those particular contributions are so tied to playing time and batting order and other factors beyond a player’s control that I don’t even want to get sidetracked by them. I want to look at skills, and I want to look at them in a way that reveals the relative scarcity of each.

I’m mostly interested in doing it for hitters. Generally, their skills are better defined than pitchers’,  and their production isn’t as contingent on usage or health. On the hitting side, balancing those three contributions — batting average, home runs and stolen bases– is critical for Roto success, but it can be difficult to visualize where scarcities are developing mid-draft. 

So for each of my top 150 hitters, I’ve assigned a letter grade for what I consider to be his most likely outcome in each of those pivotal categories. Some might have the upside for more, but again, I’m playing to the most-likely scenario here. Within each category, I’ve then grouped players by letter grade while also revealing each player’s average draft position (or ADP, according to FantasyPros) so that you know, say, how late you can still get an A-grade base-stealer.

There are far fewer of those than A-grade home run hitters, as you can see for yourself.

Batting Average

Grade A batting average sources

ADP

Player

BA

HR

SB

3

Mookie Betts, OF

A

B

B

4

Juan Soto, OF

A

A

B

5

Mike Trout, OF

A

A

C

13

Freddie Freeman, 1B

A

A

D

25

DJ LeMahieu, 1B/2B/3B

A

B

D

30

Anthony Rendon, 3B

A

B

D

34

Corey Seager, SS

A

B

F

44

Marcell Ozuna, OF

A

A

F

47

Tim Anderson, SS

A

C

C

73

Charlie Blackmon, OF

A

C

D

77

Ketel Marte, 2B

A

C

D

90

Jose Altuve, 2B

A

C

D

101

Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF

A

D

D

147

Michael Brantley, OF

A

C

D

152

Gio Urshela, 3B

A

C

F

183

Nick Madrigal, 2B

A

F

B

196

Justin Turner, 3B

A

C

F

212

David Fletcher, 2B/SS

A

F

D

Grade B batting average sources

ADP

Player

BA

HR

SB

1

Ronald Acuna, OF

B

A

A

2

Fernando Tatis, SS

B

A

A

8

Trea Turner, SS

B

B

A

10

Christian Yelich, OF

B

A

B

11

Jose Ramirez, 3B

B

A

B

12

Trevor Story, SS

B

A

B

16

Francisco Lindor, SS

B

B

B

17

Bryce Harper, OF

B

A

C

20

Manny Machado, 3B

B

A

C

23

Bo Bichette, SS

B

B

C

29

Xander Bogaerts, SS

B

B

D

32

Nolan Arenado, 3B

B

B

F

33

Ozzie Albies, 2B

B

C

C

35

Eloy Jimenez, OF

B

A

F

36

Alex Bregman, 3B

B

B

D

37

Jose Abreu, 1B

B

B

F

39

Rafael Devers, 3B

B

B

D

42

Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF

B

D

A

45

George Springer, OF

B

A

D

51

Starling Marte, OF

B

D

B

54

Vladimir Guerrero, 1B

B

C

F

61

Gleyber Torres, SS

B

B

D

70

Michael Conforto, OF

B

B

D

75

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

B

B

D

81

Yordan Alvarez, DH

B

A

F

83

Nick Castellanos, OF

B

A

F

86

Yoan Moncada, 3B

B

C

C

88

Nelson Cruz, DH

B

A

F

89

J.D. Martinez, DH

B

A

F

91

Austin Meadows, OF

B

B

D

92

Lourdes Gurriel, OF

B

B

D

98

Anthony Rizzo, 1B

B

B

D

105

Dansby Swanson, SS

B

C

C

107

Alec Bohm, 3B

B

C

F

111

Kris Bryant, 3B

B

B

F

113

Dominic Smith, 1B/OF

B

B

F

115

Mike Yastrzemski, OF

B

B

D

120

Carlos Correa, SS

B

B

F

121

Eddie Rosario, OF

B

B

D

126

Alex Verdugo, OF

B

D

C

135

Travis d’Arnaud, C

B

C

F

138

Tommy Edman, 3B/SS/OF

B

D

B

139

Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B

B

C

C

155

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF

B

C

F

157

Trey Mancini, OF

B

B

F

162

Didi Gregorius, SS

B

C

D

173

Shohei Ohtani, DH

B

C

C

182

Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B/SS

B

D

C

200

Jean Segura, 2B/3B

B

D

D

202

Jarred Kelenic, OF

B

C

C

224

Raimel Tapia, OF

B

F

B

229

Jorge Polanco, SS

B

D

D

230

J.D. Davis, 3B

B

C

F

238

Alex Kirilloff, OF

B

C

F

261

Willi Castro, SS

B

C

D

263

Wander Franco, SS

B

C

D

273

Lorenzo Cain, OF

B

D

C

279

Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B

B

C

F

280

Yuli Gurriel, 1B

B

D

F

283

Tommy La Stella, 1B/2B

B

D

F

302

Alejandro Kirk, C

B

D

F

312

Cesar Hernandez, 2B

B

F

C

314

Ty France, 2B

B

D

F

333

Joey Votto, 1B

B

C

F

407

Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS

B

F

C

Grade C batting average sources

ADP

Player

BA

HR

SB

15

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF

C

A

C

27

Adalberto Mondesi, SS

C

D

A+

38

Kyle Tucker, OF

C

B

B

48

J.T. Realmuto, C

C

B

D

49

Aaron Judge, OF

C

A+

D

57

Luke Voit, 1B

C

A

F

62

Randy Arozarena, OF

C

B

C

65

Trent Grisham, OF

C

C

B

67

Keston Hiura, 2B

C

B

C

68

Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF

C

B

D

71

Eugenio Suarez, 3B

C

A

F

78

Javier Baez, SS

C

B

C

80

Teoscar Hernandez, OF

C

B

D

87

Salvador Perez, C

C

B

F

96

Max Muncy, 1B/2B/3B

C

A

F

102

Matt Chapman, 3B

C

A

F

104

Will Smith, C

C

B

F

110

Giancarlo Stanton, DH

C

A+

F

112

Willson Contreras, C

C

C

F

123

Mike Moustakas, 1B/2B

C

B

F

124

Wil Myers, OF

C

B

C

127

Tommy Pham, OF

C

C

B

131

Marcus Semien, SS

C

C

C

132

Josh Bell, 1B

C

B

F

137

Kyle Lewis, OF

C

B

C

143

Jorge Soler, DH

C

A

F

144

Ramon Laureano, OF

C

C

C

148

Eric Hosmer, 1B

C

C

D

150

Ian Happ, OF

C

B

D

151

Franmil Reyes, DH

C

A

F

159

Christian Vazquez, C

C

D

D

161

Anthony Santander, OF

C

B

F

164

Dylan Carlson, OF

C

C

C

172

Clint Frazier, OF

C

B

D

177

A.J. Pollock, OF

C

C

C

178

Austin Nola, C

C

D

F

181

Josh Donaldson, 3B

C

A

F

184

Ha-seong Kim, SS

C

D

C

189

Andres Gimenez, 2B/3B/SS

C

D

B

191

Nick Solak, 2B/OF

C

D

C

198

Christian Walker, 1B

C

C

D

203

James McCann, C

C

D

F

207

Daulton Varsho, C/OF

C

D

C

209

Jared Walsh, 1B

C

B

F

210

Chris Taylor, 2B/SS/OF

C

D

D

211

Mitch Garver, C

C

B

F

214

Andrew McCutchen, OF

C

C

C

218

Jesse Winker, OF

C

C

F

222

Andrew Benintendi, OF

C

D

C

226

Hunter Dozier 1B/OF

C

C

D

227

Brian Anderson, 3B

C

C

F

233

Andrew Vaughn, 1B

C

B

F

237

Gavin Lux, 2B

C

C

D

246

Mitch Haniger, OF

C

C

D

247

Mark Canha, OF

C

C

D

252

Nick Senzel, OF

C

D

C

254

Brandon Nimmo, OF

C

D

D

255

Kolten Wong, 2B

C

F

C

260

Eduardo Escobar, 3B

C

C

F

269

Jon Berti, 2B/OF

C

F

A

272

Manuel Margot, OF

C

F

B

284

Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF

C

D

B

287

Rowdy Tellez, 1B

C

B

F

288

Jurickson Profar, 2B/OF

C

D

C

298

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B/SS

C

F

C

310

C.J. Cron, 1B

C

B

F

338

Elvis Andrus, SS

C

F

B

339

Myles Straw, OF

C

F

B

346

Jonathan Schoop, 2B

C

C

F

379

David Dahl, OF

C

D

C

380

Nate Lowe, 1B

C

C

F

412

Brendan Rodgers, 2B

C

C

C

451

Oscar Mercado, OF

C

D

C

480

Josh Rojas, 2B

C

D

D

Home Runs

Grade A home run sources

ADP

Player

BA

HR

SB

49

Aaron Judge, OF

C

A+

D

110

Giancarlo Stanton, DH

C

A+

F

133

Joey Gallo, OF

D

A+

D

1

Ronald Acuna, OF

B

A

A

2

Fernando Tatis, SS

B

A

A

4

Juan Soto, OF

A

A

B

5

Mike Trout, OF

A

A

C

10

Christian Yelich, OF

B

A

B

11

Jose Ramirez, 3B

B

A

B

12

Trevor Story, SS

B

A

B

13

Freddie Freeman, 1B

A

A

D

15

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF

C

A

C

17

Bryce Harper, OF

B

A

C

20

Manny Machado, 3B

B

A

C

35

Eloy Jimenez, OF

B

A

F

44

Marcell Ozuna, OF

A

A

F

45

George Springer, OF

B

A

D

52

Pete Alonso, 1B

D

A

F

57

Luke Voit, 1B

C

A

F

71

Eugenio Suarez, 3B

C

A

F

81

Yordan Alvarez, DH

B

A

F

83

Nick Castellanos, OF

B

A

F

84

Matt Olson, 1B

D

A

F

88

Nelson Cruz, DH

B

A

F

89

J.D. Martinez, DH

B

A

F

96

Max Muncy, 1B/2B/3B

C

A

F

102

Matt Chapman, 3B

C

A

F

142

Rhys Hoskins, 1B

D

A

F

143

Jorge Soler, DH

C

A

F

146

Gary Sanchez, C

D

A

F

151

Franmil Reyes, DH

C

A

F

176

Miguel Sano, 1B

D

A

F

181

Josh Donaldson, 3B

C

A

F

344

Hunter Renfroe, OF

D

A

D

Grade B home run sources

ADP

Player

BA

HR

SB

3

Mookie Betts, OF

A

B

B

8

Trea Turner, SS

B

B

A

16

Francisco Lindor, SS

B

B

B

23

Bo Bichette, SS

B

B

C

25

DJ LeMahieu, 1B/2B/3B

A

B

D

29

Xander Bogaerts, SS

B

B

D

30

Anthony Rendon, 3B

A

B

D

32

Nolan Arenado, 3B

B

B

F

34

Corey Seager, SS

A

B

F

36

Alex Bregman, 3B

B

B

D

37

Jose Abreu, 1B

B

B

F

38

Kyle Tucker, OF

C

B

B

39

Rafael Devers, 3B

B

B

D

41

Luis Robert, OF

D

B

B

48

J.T. Realmuto, C

C

B

D

61

Gleyber Torres, SS

B

B

D

62

Randy Arozarena, OF

C

B

C

67

Keston Hiura, 2B

C

B

C

68

Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF

C

B

D

70

Michael Conforto, OF

B

B

D

75

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

B

B

D

78

Javier Baez, SS

C

B

C

80

Teoscar Hernandez, OF

C

B

D

87

Salvador Perez, C

C

B

F

91

Austin Meadows, OF

B

B

D

92

Lourdes Gurriel, OF

B

B

D

98

Anthony Rizzo, 1B

B

B

D

104

Will Smith, C

C

B

F

111

Kris Bryant, 3B

B

B

F

113

Dominic Smith, 1B/OF

B

B

F

115

Mike Yastrzemski, OF

B

B

D

117

Byron Buxton, OF

D

B

B

120

Carlos Correa, SS

B

B

F

121

Eddie Rosario, OF

B

B

D

123

Mike Moustakas, 1B/2B

C

B

F

124

Wil Myers, OF

C

B

C

132

Josh Bell, 1B

C

B

F

137

Kyle Lewis, OF

C

B

C

150

Ian Happ, OF

C

B

D

157

Trey Mancini, OF

B

B

F

161

Anthony Santander, OF

C

B

F

166

Max Kepler, OF

D

B

D

172

Clint Frazier, OF

C

B

D

188

Kyle Schwarber, OF

D

B

F

209

Jared Walsh, 1B

C

B

F

211

Mitch Garver, C

C

B

F

213

Austin Riley, 3B

D

B

F

215

Carlos Santana, 1B

D

B

F

233

Andrew Vaughn, 1B

C

B

F

239

Paul DeJong, SS

D

B

D

253

Kole Calhoun, OF

D

B

D

278

Bobby Dalbec, 1B

D

B

F

287

Rowdy Tellez, 1B

C

B

F

289

Joc Pederson, OF

D

B

F

310

C.J. Cron, 1B

C

B

F

324

Justin Upton, OF

D

B

D

345

Adam Duvall, OF

D

B

F

397

Sam Hilliard, OF

D

B

C

472

Tyler O’Neill, OF

D

B

D

Grade C home run sources

ADP

Player

BA

HR

SB

33

Ozzie Albies, 2B

B

C

C

47

Tim Anderson, SS

A

C

C

54

Vladimir Guerrero, 1B

B

C

F

59

Cavan Biggio, 2B/3B/OF

D

C

C

65

Trent Grisham, OF

C

C

B

73

Charlie Blackmon, OF

A

C

D

77

Ketel Marte, 2B

A

C

D

86

Yoan Moncada, 3B

B

C

C

90

Jose Altuve, 2B

A

C

D

105

Dansby Swanson, SS

B

C

C

107

Alec Bohm, 3B

B

C

F

112

Willson Contreras, C

C

C

F

127

Tommy Pham, OF

C

C

B

130

Yasmani Grandal, C

D

C

F

131

Marcus Semien, SS

C

C

C

135

Travis d’Arnaud, C

B

C

F

139

Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B

B

C

C

144

Ramon Laureano, OF

C

C

C

147

Michael Brantley, OF

A

C

D

148

Eric Hosmer, 1B

C

C

D

152

Gio Urshela, 3B

A

C

F

155

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF

B

C

F

156

Dylan Moore 2B/OF

D

C

A

162

Didi Gregorius, SS

B

C

D

164

Dylan Carlson, OF

C

C

C

173

Shohei Ohtani, DH

B

C

C

177

A.J. Pollock, OF

C

C

C

196

Justin Turner, 3B

A

C

F

198

Christian Walker, 1B

C

C

D

202

Jarred Kelenic, OF

B

C

C

214

Andrew McCutchen, OF

C

C

C

218

Jesse Winker, OF

C

C

F

226

Hunter Dozier 1B/OF

C

C

D

227

Brian Anderson, 3B

C

C

F

230

J.D. Davis, 3B

B

C

F

232

Kyle Seager, 3B

D

C

F

237

Gavin Lux, 2B

C

C

D

238

Alex Kirilloff, OF

B

C

F

243

Aaron Hicks, OF

D

C

C

246

Mitch Haniger, OF

C

C

D

247

Mark Canha, OF

C

C

D

260

Eduardo Escobar, 3B

C

C

F

261

Willi Castro, SS

B

C

D

263

Wander Franco, SS

B

C

D

279

Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B

B

C

F

333

Joey Votto, 1B

B

C

F

346

Jonathan Schoop, 2B

C

C

F

380

Nate Lowe, 1B

C

C

F

412

Brendan Rodgers, 2B

C

C

C

Stolen Bases

Grade A stolen base sources

ADP

Player

BA

HR

SB

27

Adalberto Mondesi, SS

C

D

A+

1

Ronald Acuna, OF

B

A

A

2

Fernando Tatis, SS

B

A

A

8

Trea Turner, SS

B

B

A

42

Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF

B

D

A

156

Dylan Moore 2B/OF

D

C

A

185

Jonathan Villar, 2B/SS

D

D

A

269

Jon Berti, 2B/OF

C

F

A

Grade B stolen base sources

ADP

Player

BA

HR

SB

3

Mookie Betts, OF

A

B

B

4

Juan Soto, OF

A

A

B

10

Christian Yelich, OF

B

A

B

11

Jose Ramirez, 3B

B

A

B

12

Trevor Story, SS

B

A

B

16

Francisco Lindor, SS

B

B

B

38

Kyle Tucker, OF

C

B

B

41

Luis Robert, OF

D

B

B

51

Starling Marte, OF

B

D

B

65

Trent Grisham, OF

C

C

B

117

Byron Buxton, OF

D

B

B

127

Tommy Pham, OF

C

C

B

138

Tommy Edman, 3B/SS/OF

B

D

B

160

Victor Robles, OF

D

D

B

183

Nick Madrigal, 2B

A

F

B

189

Andres Gimenez, 2B/3B/SS

C

D

B

224

Raimel Tapia, OF

B

F

B

234

Leody Taveras, OF

D

D

B

272

Manuel Margot, OF

C

F

B

284

Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF

C

D

B

338

Elvis Andrus, SS

C

F

B

339

Myles Straw, OF

C

F

B

Grade C stolen base sources

ADP

Player

BA

HR

SB

5

Mike Trout, OF

A

A

C

15

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF

C

A

C

17

Bryce Harper, OF

B

A

C

20

Manny Machado, 3B

B

A

C

23

Bo Bichette, SS

B

B

C

33

Ozzie Albies, 2B

B

C

C

47

Tim Anderson, SS

A

C

C

59

Cavan Biggio, 2B/3B/OF

D

C

C

62

Randy Arozarena, OF

C

B

C

67

Keston Hiura, 2B

C

B

C

78

Javier Baez, SS

C

B

C

86

Yoan Moncada, 3B

B

C

C

105

Dansby Swanson, SS

B

C

C

124

Wil Myers, OF

C

B

C

126

Alex Verdugo, OF

B

D

C

131

Marcus Semien, SS

C

C

C

137

Kyle Lewis, OF

C

B

C

139

Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B

B

C

C

144

Ramon Laureano, OF

C

C

C

164

Dylan Carlson, OF

C

C

C

173

Shohei Ohtani, DH

B

C

C

177

A.J. Pollock, OF

C

C

C

182

Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B/SS

B

D

C

184

Ha-seong Kim, SS

C

D

C

191

Nick Solak, 2B/OF

C

D

C

202

Jarred Kelenic, OF

B

C

C

207

Daulton Varsho, C/OF

C

D

C

214

Andrew McCutchen, OF

C

C

C

222

Andrew Benintendi, OF

C

D

C

243

Aaron Hicks, OF

D

C

C

252

Nick Senzel, OF

C

D

C

255

Kolten Wong, 2B

C

F

C

273

Lorenzo Cain, OF

B

D

C

288

Jurickson Profar, 2B/OF

C

D

C

298

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B/SS

C

F

C

312

Cesar Hernandez, 2B

B

F

C

326

Scott Kingery, 2B

D

D

C

379

David Dahl, OF

C

D

C

397

Sam Hilliard, OF

D

B

C

407

Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS

B

F

C

412

Brendan Rodgers, 2B

C

C

C

451

Oscar Mercado, OF

C

D

C

623

Michael Taylor, OF

D

D

C